Climate Catastrophes and Civilizations: The Role of Resilience and Inequality

The fall of ancient empires, such as the Roman Empire, has long captivated the global consciousness, as we often wonder how such grand civilizations could collapse. This interest is not merely historical curiosity – it reflects our concerns about the potential of a similar fate befalling modern societies.

“Inequality is one of history’s greatest villains. It leads to and is at the heart of many other issues.” - Daniel Hoyer, historian.

Theories linking the collapse of civilizations to climate change have gained traction in recent years. For instance, the Roman Empire’s unraveling has been associated with a series of volcanic eruptions leading to a cooling period and an outbreak of bubonic plague. Similarly, the decline of the ancient Maya civilization has been linked to a significant drought. At the same time, Angkor Wat’s downfall is believed to be due to extreme climate fluctuations causing alternating droughts and monsoon floods.

Resilience and Adaptation: Keys to Survival

However, focusing solely on climate-induced catastrophes provides a skewed perspective of history, as it overlooks those societies that successfully navigated environmental disasters and survived. A 2021 review discovered that 77 percent of studies examining the interplay between climate change and organizations emphasized tragedy, while only 10 percent focused on resilience.

Recent research from the Complexity Science Hub, an organization based in Vienna, Austria, uses mathematical models to understand complex systems dynamics and has found numerous examples of societies that have survived environmental stressors. The study analyzed 150 crises from various periods and regions across more than 5,000 years of human history, back to the Neolithic period.

The Role of Inequality and Political Polarization

The study posits that inequality and political polarization are significant societal resilience or collapse factors. Declining living standards can lead to dissatisfaction among the populace while elites vie for prestigious positions. As societal pressures increase and fractures emerge, the government loses legitimacy, complicating collective problem-solving efforts.

Conversely, cooperation can help societies withstand environmental threats. This emphasizes the importance of social cohesion and collaboration in effecting reforms and adaptations, from divesting from fossil fuels to changing food systems.

Lessons from the Past for Modern Societies

The findings of these studies raise the question of how applicable the lessons from ancient societies are to the modern world, with its advanced technology and interconnectedness. Nevertheless, environmental historian Dagomar Degroot believes historical strategies can serve as a starting point for contemporary policies to help us navigate climate change.

Strategies that have proven effective across millennia include migration, learning from past disasters, establishing trade networks, and supporting socioeconomic equality. However, it is worth noting that the United States, among other nations, needs to follow a path that would foster such resilience.

The research suggests that societal collapse could be considered an adaptation in dire situations. However, a better system does not automatically replace the vulnerable, unequal one after failure. Effort is required to implement reforms and secure the support of those in power to set and reinforce new systems.